The idea of this workshop series is to bring together utility and TSO personnel using wind power forecasts daily, and to share some tips and tricks for making the best use of them. This is flanked with the latest news from research and notes from operational forecasters.
News: the talk slides are available when clicking on the titles. (For previous workshops, see here: the first and second workshop).
SESSION: Intra-day issues in Germany
Matthias Lange, energy &
meteo systems, DE:
Current developments in wind power forecasting.
To meet the requirements of the end-users wind power predictions are
continuously enhanced to e.g. cover ramp events, manage extreme events, allow
probabilistic forecasting, or have a high regional resolution. The presentation
will give an overview over current developments, in particular, the EU projects
ANEMOS.plus and SAFEWIND.
Arne Wessel, Reinhard Mackensen, Bernhard Lange, ISET, DE:
Development of a shortest-term wind power forecast for Germany including
online wind data and implementation at three German TSO
As highly intermittent energy source, wind energy
needs wind power prediction for a successful integration in the electrical
network. Wind power prediction tools help the TSOs for managing the electricity
balance on the grid. The ISET developed recently a shortest term forecast system
for time horizons up to eight hours in advance and with an actualization period
of one hour. The system is developed for the control zone of the electrical grid
of complete Germany. It is based on the newest short term weather forecast from
the DWD, the Cosmo-DE model, which is updated 8 times a day. This forecast
system is currently installed at three of the four German TSOs.
Dietmar Graeber, EnBW Transportnetze AG:
Balancing of
wind energy with shortest-term forecasts at EnBW Transportnetze AG
For balancing of differences between day-ahead wind energy
forecast and real wind power production EnBW Transportnetze AG introduced a new
process in July 2009. In the EnBW approach the intraday-markets, specific
reserves and traditional secondary and tertiary reserves are used. Critical to
the process is the availibility of shortest term forecasts.
Coffee Break
SESSION: Ramp events
Jesper Thiesen, ConWX, DK:
Now casting RAMP events
Since the installation of the first offshore parks and the
major onshore parks it has been a challenge to the grid operators that the
production from these wind parks is often changing very rapidly. These changes
are often caused by small scale meteorological systems. On short term (9-120
hours) the probability of ramp events can be predicted by using a number of
numerical weather predictions (NWP) or ensemble forecasts. However, on very
short term (0-6 hours) the techniques of using meteorological models are
outperformed by persistence forecasts. We have been working with statistical
improvements for offshore parks, but the only way to improve forecasts on very
short term is to use data assimilation on the wind power forecast from one or
more surrounding measurements like met masts, other wind parks, and Doppler
radar.
John Pease, Bonneville Power Administration, US:
Critical Short-term Forecasting Needs for Large and Unscheduled Wind Energy on
the BPA System
Bonneville Power Administration (BPA) just completed the
1st 2009 Trimester Review with its two contracted wind forecast providers,
Energy & Meteo Systems and AWS Truewind, on the BPA Wind Ramp Event Tracking
System project. This 2009 - 2010 R&D project's goal is to forecast large and
often unscheduled wind energy in the BPA Balancing Area that is consuming
increasingly scarce hydro flexibility needed to support wind. This project is
now under consideration to become BPA's generation scheduling and transmission
dispatch forecast system in 2010. Important new information was presented to the
wind forecast providers at this Trimester review meeting on the challenges of
accurately forecasting short-term wind energy to meet BPA needs. This
presentation will cover the operational challenges of moving an R&D wind
forecast project to a utility scale operational wind forecast system for the
largest build out of wind of any utility in North America.
Jeremy Parkes, GarradHassan, UK:
Temporal Forecast Uncertainty for Ramp
Events.
Wind energy forecasting is an essential tool in
facilitating wind energy integration. To enable the forecasts to be fully
utilised, forecast uncertainty information is typically provided. This paper
focuses on methodologies for generating temporal forecast uncertainty for rapid
changes in the production from wind farms. The forecast uncertainty is generated
using an ensemble of NWP inputs, statistical processing and adaptive algorithms,
to provide a clear indication of the likely timing and amplitude of wind energy
ramps.
Lunch
SESSION: Down Under and Over There
Graeme Ancell, Transpower, NZ:
Operational uses of
wind generation forecasts in New Zealand
Deep Juneja, AEMO, AU:
Australian Wind Energy Forecasting System Overview.
The Australian Wind Energy Forecasting System (AWEFS) project was established by
Australian Energy Market Operator (previously NEMMCO), in 2007, in response to
the growth in intermittent generation in the Australian National Electricity
Market (NEM) and the increasing impact this growth is having on NEM forecasting
process. The project has been financed through the Commonwealth government's
Department of Resources, Energy and Tourism (DRET) to develop a wind energy
forecasting system and capability. This project provides a vehicle for improving
the research, development and application for forecasting of renewable energy.
The project has two broad objectives:
1. Facilitating the operation of the market
through more accurate wind generation forecasts; and
2. Facilitating research to improve the
quality and dimension of the wind generation forecasts over time
This project provides a vehicle for improving the research, development and
application for forecasting of renewable energy. Researchers under licence will
be provided access to data to allow them to integrate new forecasting models
over time.
The vendor for the project is the ANEMOS Consortium, a European consortium of 6
partners and is coordinated by ARMINES (France) and OVERSPEED (Germany), who
have developed the Wind Forecasting Engine. The Anemos forecasting model
combines statistical and physical approaches to get an improved forecast. The
AWEFS system produces forecasts from the following inputs:
AEMO hosts the AWEFS system and maintains its interfaces to its existing market
systems to give data access to the market participants and to individual wind
farms. AWEFS provides a more accurate forecast of wind generation, which is an
increasingly significant and highly variable component of total generation in
some regions of the NEM. Better forecasts will drive improved efficiency of
overall NEM dispatch, pricing, and permit better power system stability and
security management.
This AWEFS system produces wind generation forecasts for all NEM forecasting
timeframes noted below:
Wei Yu, Environment Canada, Yves Gagnon, Universite de
Moncton, Christian Masson, École de technologie supérieure Montreal, CA:
Wind Energy Forecasting Research and
Innovation Project in Canada
The research and innovation program presented is part
of a series of projects to develop and assess wind energy forecasting
methodologies for the Canadian climate. The research program is a component of
the Wind Energy Strategic Network (WESNet) of Canada, while the work is being
done in partnership with the Wind Energy Institute of Canada and Hydro-Québec.
After a description of the context of the research program in Canada, the
presentation will provide a brief overview of the wind energy forecasting system
used in the research work. Results from the validation of the model will be
presented for two specific locations with different topographic conditions. This
will be followed by examples of application in high impact events such as
mountain waves and turbulent flows. Finally, current ongoing work will be
described, along with the future plan for the program.
The presentation will also provide a brief overview of the Wind Energy Strategic
Network (WESNet, www.wesnet.ca) of Canada, along with the Wind Energy Institute
of Canada (WEICan, www.weican.ca).
Coffee Break
SESSION: News from Research
Olivier Texier, Maïa Eolis, FR:
Wind Power Forecasting: A
practical evaluation study of different wind power prediction services and
practical operation expectations.
In the state of mind of the ANEMOS project, Maia Eolis
carried out an assessment study of several wind power prediction services. The
predictions are setting-up on two wind farms, which present different length of
historical data. The evaluation was focus one the performance and reliability of
the data.
The performance of the models is evaluated by using a protocol inspired from the
one of the ANEMOS project.
In addition the errors in terms of real production is also evaluation and
operation expectations are mentioned.
Finally the a look will be given on turbines behaviour during the storm of the
10th February in France.
Corinna Möhrlen, Weprog, DK/DE:
First experiences of the
new EEG trading rules in Germany and introduction of an ensemble based
short-term forecasting methodology for intra-day trading.
In the new German renewable energy law (EEG) from autumn
2008, direct marketing of all renewable energy has become an option. Although
the purpose of the law was not necessarily to encourage direct marketing, but
rather to allow for the option is has not been a success so far.
The current study will discuss some of the non-technical obstacles for direct
marketing of wind power in Germany and some technical aspects required to make
direct marketing feasible in the future. The focus will here be on short-term
forecasting. The algorithm that will be introduced is based on an ensemble
Kalman Filter technique and presents a milestone in short-term forecasting. It
is capable of establishing a consistent physical treatment of measurements and
hence is able to take the weather development and not only the distance to a
measurement into account when extrapolating measurement information into the
future. In this way,
persistence forecasts can be outperformed already after 1 hour.
Cristóbal Gallego and Alexandre Costa, CIEMAT, ES:
Different approaches on switching-models for wind power forecasting.
Performing forecasts during ramp events has increased
the interest on switching-models, which have the capability of detecting
different regimes of the wind behaviour. This kind of models perform on-line
classification depending on certain hypotheses, like considering the process
observable or unobservable. Several approaches have been carried out by the
Group of Forecasting of Ciemat, based on Autoregressive, Neural Nets and
Markov-Switching models. Some results will be presented, as well as the future
research guide-lines.
Date and Venue: Hotel Maritim, Bremen, 13 October 2009, 09:00 to 17:00.
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